With an extra day in the calendar, the Leap Year proved to be a positive for the markets. February saw the markets continue their recent upward trajectory.
February Market Performance:
The latest inflation reading in the US that was reported on February 13th came in at 3.1%. This is down from the previous reading of 3.4% but came in higher than the forecasted 2.9%. Although it is higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, CPI in the US peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, so it has improved.
Inflation in Canada surprised expectations on Feb 20th by coming in at 2.9% compared to a forecast of 3.3%. The latest reading is the lowest since June of last year.
If you’ve had time to glance at previous monthly updates, you’ve likely noticed an inflationary theme. Over the last couple years, inflation and interest rates have been drivers of market volatility. This is likely to continue for the foreseeable future; but as mentioned above, inflation readings in North America are trending in the right direction.
We tend to focus on North American (specifically Canada as it affects us more directly) inflation readings. I thought it would prove interesting to look at inflation from a more global view to give perspective on our situation here at home.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Economic Outlook (sourced on visualcapitalist.com) the IMF 2024 projection for global inflation is 5.8%.
The worst projection for any country is Venezuela at 230% inflation rate. Venezuela has been fighting hyperinflation, and in 2019, their rate hit 10 million percent.
A couple other standouts are Zimbabwe at a projected inflation rate of 190.2% and Sudan at 127.3%.
Developed Europe nations are projected to average 3.3%, and the US at 2.6%. For more on this and a detailed map outlining all 2024 inflation projections, please visit https://www.visualcapitalist.com/inflation-projections-by-country-in-2024/
